Vodafone Idea slides 57% in a year; analysts warn of further downside below Rs 6.30

Vodafone Idea shares, down over 57% in the past year, continue to reflect a bearish trend as technical analysts highlight weak momentum and lack of investor interest. The stock was trading around Rs 7.26 on Wednesday, hovering near the lower end of its range, with no signs of a sustained recovery.

Hardik Matalia, Derivatives Analyst at Choice Broking, said the stock remains entrenched in a long-term downtrend and has failed to attract meaningful investor participation.

“Despite minor recoveries, Vodafone Idea has failed to show any sustained strength. The broader bias remains negative,” said Hardik Matalia, Derivatives Analyst at Choice Broking. “A breakdown below Rs 6.30 could trigger further downside, while a sustainable move above Rs 10.50 is required to reverse sentiment.”

He added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.47 but has shown signs of weakness due to a negative crossover. The stock also trades below its long-term exponential moving averages, and any breach below short-term averages could reinforce bearish momentum.

Short-term traders, he noted, should watch for a breakdown below Rs 7 before considering fresh shorting. For any buying opportunity, a strong reversal supported by volume would be essential.

Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, echoed the bearish view.

“Vodafone Idea continues to trade within a falling channel pattern. It recently faced rejection near Rs 7.80, which reinforces that level as strong resistance,” he said. “Unless the stock breaks out of this range decisively, the outlook will remain weak.”

Immediate support lies at Rs 7.13, aligned with the 50-day EMA. A close below this level could open further downside toward Rs 6.80, he added.

AGR Dues and Lack of Relief Keep Sentiment Tepid

The technical weakness comes amid continued uncertainty around Vodafone Idea’s massive adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. While the telco has sought further payment relief from the government, recent reports suggest that the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) is unlikely to grant any extension on the Rs 84,000 crore dues, payments for which are set to begin from FY26.

This adds to the financial strain despite the government’s earlier move to convert Rs 36,950 crore of dues into equity, giving it a 49% stake in the company.

Subscriber Losses and Q4 Snapshot

The company’s total subscriber base fell below the 200-million mark in March 2025, underscoring the challenge it faces in retaining users amid fierce competition from Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.

Vodafone Idea reported a net loss of Rs 7,166 crore in Q4FY25, while revenue grew 3.8% year-on-year to Rs 11,014 crore. Sequentially, losses widened further.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)